WASHINGTON – The U. S. economy But it’s not the first time It has plummeted at an unprecedented rate this spring, and even with an expected record uptick in the third quarter that has just ended, the US economy is likely to be in the middle of the world. But it’s not the first time It is contracted this year, the first time this has happened since the Great Recession.
Gross domestic product, the economy’s overall production of goods and services, fell to 31. 4% in the April-June quarter, which replaced only the estimated 31. 7% decline a month ago, Commerce reported Wednesday.
The last government review in the last quarter showed a decrease that was more than 3 times greater than the 10% decline in the first quarter of 1958 when Dwight Eisenhower was president, which had been the biggest drop in U. S. history.
Economists estimate that the economy will grow at an annual rate of 30% in the current quarter with the reopening of business and the return to painting of millions of people, breaking the past record for quarterly GDP growth, an increase of 16. 7% in the first quarter of 1950 when Harry Truman president.
The government will publish its JULY-September GDP report until October 29, just five days before the presidential election.
While President Donald Trump has an economic uptick in persuading the electorate to give him a moment’s tenure, economists have said that uptick this year is a blow.
Economists expect expansion to slow particularly in the last 3 months of this year at a rate of about 4% and that the United States may in fact fall back into recession if Congress does not approve the stimulus package or if there is a coVID-19 resurgence: Infections are lately accumulating in some parts of the country , adding New York.
“There are many potential traps,” said Gus Faucher, leading economist at PNC Financial Services. “We still face a number of discounts as a result of the pandemic. “
In 2020, economists expect GDP to fall by about 4%, marking the first annual fall in GDP since a 2. 5% drop in 2009, the recession triggered by the 2008 currency crisis.
“With the slowdown in economic momentum, the expiration of fiscal stimulus, the flu season technique, and emerging electoral uncertainty, the main question is how the labor market will contribute to the fourth quarter,” said Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics’ leading U. S. economist. .
“With the prospect of further cutting tax assistance, consumers, businesses and governments will have to manage on their own in the coming months,” Daco said.
Trump’s leadership expects an expansion forged in the coming quarters, which will repair all production lost to the pandemic. However, top economists say restoring all lost production can take some time and do not rule out returning to a fall in GDP if other government aid is not expected.
So far this year, the economy has fallen to 5% in the first quarter, marking the end of an almost 11-year economic expansion, the longest in U. S. history, followed by a 31. 4% drop in the current quarter. it was first estimated two months ago as a decrease of 32. 9%, and then revised down 31. 7% last month.
The slight upward revision of this report reflects less a decrease in customer spending than had been estimated. This was still a record drop at a rate of 33. 2%, however last month’s projections predicted a 34. 1% drop. exports and business investment.
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