With a day to go before the US presidential election, the US presidential election is not the only day to go. Usa, the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden may harden more than the polls suggest, at least according to the online non-profit prediction market PredictIt, one of the platforms established by the CFTC. create platforms to allow national bets on U. S. political outcomes.
On Monday, PredictIt put Biden’s chances of winning the election at around 63 percent, up from nearly 70 percent earlier this month, as Trump’s chances rise to about 40 percent.
The implied probability of a democratic sweep, on the other hand, has remained unchanged at 60% over the following month, according to Goldman Sachs’ investigation of PredictIt data.
Regular polls are incredibly more positive about Biden: the fiveThirtyEight survey puts Biden’s chances of victory on election eve by 90%.
Major changing states, where polls show biden’s advantage is well below the national average, are largely to blame for the disparity between polls and predictive markets: in states where polls are necessarily linked, prediction markets favor Trump with about 65% chance. to win, Goldman said on a recent note to customers.
PredictIt, for example, showed North Carolina, one of the sun belt battlefields (where polls show Biden is 2. 1 numbers ahead), moving to Trump in more than 24 hours; Georgia is a changing state in which Trump leads PredictIt’s ratings while lagging behind in the polls: a victory in either state can lead Trump to an election victory.
The growing divergence between prediction markets and surveys can be reduced to two very likely factors, Goldman adds: increased mail-by-mail voting, on the one hand, makes “predicting participation more difficult” and, on the other hand, market observers could only be careful that the effects of elections once they return differ from knowledge of surveys at the state level , which was largely the case in the 2016 presidential election.
Former Vice President Biden leads Goldman’s national polls by approximately nine percentage points, nearly double the lead of former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the days leading up to the 2016 election. According to Goldman, “state surveys in the presidential election from 1ninenine2 to 2016 show that approximately one week before the election, a leading candidate with a [two percentage point margin] won this state approximately 3 out of four. “But that wasn’t the case in 2016, which Goldman says accounted for a third of all missed calls at the state point since 2000.
“Prediction markets recommend that the outcome of the election remains very uncertain, implying a little more than 60% chance that Biden will win the Electoral College,” Goldman’s team of analysts said on a recent note, bringing polls much closer together in major undecided states. . that nationally. ” The result is that while money market players are voting on the final election results, implicit probability recommends that they, like predictive markets, be taking a more cautious view of being publicly had survey data. “
The most popular Senate prediction market on PredictIt, with nearly 10 million bets, suggests democrats will likely win four Senate seats after Tuesday’s election, pushing them to a majority with 51 seats in total.
The result of the Blue Wave election, which remains the peak, probably the final results, according to surveys and predictive markets, may be only movements exposed to energy efficiency, smart mobility and renewable energy given Biden’s green agenda, said Mark Haefele, UBS’s leading chief investment director. on a note to customers earlier this month. But more importantly, expanding Biden’s leadership, along with the greater possibilities of a Democratic-controlled Senate, would make it less difficult to pass the legislation, expanding the chances that a truly large stimulus bill could eventually materialize.
$300 million. That’s at least what players bet on the UK-based US betfair Exchange election, which marks the biggest betting occasion on the platform of all time.
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I’m a journalist at Forbes and I’m in business with markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I did a double degree in business journalism.
I’m a reporter at Forbes, specializing in markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I earned a double primary in business journalism and economics while applying for UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School as a communications assistant. Prior to Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the personal sector in Los Angeles for the Los Angeles Business Journal and writing about North Carolina’s publicly traded corporations for NC Business News Wire. Contact jponciano@forbes. com.