Chief Investment Director of Cetera Financial Group (@CeteraFinancial). Learn more about Cetera Investment Management (@CeteraIM)
I know I’m in a smart company to say I’m looking towards the end of 2020. This is the last quarter of a year of demanding and incessant situations and disruptions to the economy and, most importantly, for the fitness and well-being of millions of people around the world. Since uncertainty tarnishes the picture for the fourth quarter and no one can wait for the long term even for next week, there are promising signs that the recovery will be strong, albeit slower than expected.
I am still pretty sure that this recession will be short-lived and that the economy will recover strongly. There are already relatively positive forecasts for 2021, i. e. in anticipation that the pandemic will be below and that a vaccine and effective treatments may be readily available.
So what does all this mean for investors? Despite persistent uncertainties, I am still in the field of optimism, related to patience and prudence, and with a clever explanation of why. There are widespread predictions, for example, that the effects of the third quarter will show a sharp uptick in the global economy, with dramatic improvement in employment levels. It explains why this progress will continue, albeit at a slower pace, this quarter.
The inventory market site has largely published smart news in recent months, and investors are moving at full speed. But keep in mind that the place of the inventory market is just one of many vital signs and that there are logical explanations for a quick recovery. after all, they are forward-looking in the sense that they fall in the run-up to the recession and increase when investors expect the end to come. In addition, the Federal Reserve and the government intervened to mitigate the surprise of the recession.
That said, a closer look at the historic inventory market gives rise to caveats. If you subscribe to the active inventories of the S
There is more disappointing news in employment figures, even though they are improving: the unemployment rate fell to 7. 9% in September, a sharp decline from 8. 4% last month and peaking at nearly 15% at the peak of Covid-19 quarantine in April. While the labour market is still recovering, the speed of job expansion has slowed for 3 consecutive months. Of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April, only part of it was recovered.
In the September job report, knowledge from the US Bureau of Labor StatisticsBut it’s not the first time It showed continued resistance with the addition of 661,000 jobs. But the country is a long way from pre-pandemic employment and has taken longer than expected to regain jobs. Women have disproportionately stayed in the added jobs, and some 345,000 Americans joined the 3. 35 million who had already permanently left the workforce since February.
The United States, of course, is not alone in its economic recession: according to the OECD Economic Outlook published in September, G20 countries (excluding China) sank into recession by 2020. Countries have noticed a sharp drop in economic output, but central banks have recovered, and governments around the world have provided a stimulus budget by increasing debt levels. The recovery of their economies will have its strength before the pandemic, as well as the effect of the virus and an effective political reaction. crisis.
You may find comfort in the OECD report that the foreign economic organization of 37 nations suggests a “less pessimistic” view of the global economy. But a full recovery will require customer confidence in the reaction to the pandemic and investments to keep the economy moving.
This already seems to be going down in the US. But it’s not the first time Although the customer’s confidence rate cooled to 100. 9 in October, it is still particularly higher than the 86. 3 observed in August, according to the Conference Board.
There will be continuous variation across the sector. Social distancing and closures in 2020, for example, have led to the rise of e-commerce, online education and training, telecommuting and telemedicine, as well as the virtual transformation of banks. However, the worst affected sectors, namely service and entertainment in industries such as entertainment and the entertainment industry, will take a long time, if not years, to attract large numbers of customers. Legal theaters recently announced that they will temporarily shut down sites in the United States and the United Kingdom, with the song of 45,000 jobs lost, and Disney is laying off some 28,000 workers due to the long-term disruption of its theme parks. The holiday season will provide some other indication of the direction the customer’s trust is taking.
As the fall progresses, the fourth quarter will bring more renewed prospects for expansion. Another more promising year. Without a more reliable way to look forward to the future, it is prudent to have a diversified portfolio and long-term goals. Working with a monetary professional can help you succeed over any uncertainty, even in times of old connection agitation.
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