I want to upload a few notes to my Christmas weekend column about the Census Bureau’s July 2021 state population estimates and the stories they tell about the expansion and decline in the first 15 months of the coronavirus pandemic.
THE BUST OF IMMIGRATION
The big news has to do with immigration. During the years 2010 to 2019, the Census Bureau recorded an increase in “international migration” (immigration, in common parlance) of 873,000.
For the 15 months from April 2020 to July 2021, the corresponding number is just 257,000, down 71% from the average for the years 2010 to 2019. spread across the country due to Biden’s management policies. The deadline is July 1, just five months after the start of the administration.
The drop of the last decade is huge, and it’s even bigger if you look at the peak of immigration that began in the 1980s and ended with the collapse of housing costs and the severe recession of 2007.
And there is also a big difference in the fates of immigrants. In recent decades, part of all immigrants went to 3 states: California, Texas and New York.
In the year of the plague, they went elsewhere. The largest accumulation of immigration as a percentage of the pre-existing population in 2020-2021 occurred in two other states: Massachusetts and Florida, followed by Washington, D. C.
One can see in those figures the developing percentage of legal immigrants who are highly professional and other people from East and South Asia who target groups of universities and medical schools in the city of Boston, New York and Washington, DC. case on the west coast. The increase in the number of immigrants in Massachusetts (13,700) is necessarily the same as in California (13,900), even though Massachusetts has about 7 million other people and California about 39 million.
The No. 1 and No. 2 destinations for immigrants in 2020-21 were Florida (41,200) and Texas (28,500). Together, those states account for more than a quarter of the immigration backlog in the country. through the same points as domestic migrants in the year of the plague: low taxes, a colorful personal sector economy, and a relative lack of COVID-19 restrictions.
The style has political implications. Latin American and Asian immigrants in the 1982-2007 wave turned out to vote strongly for Democrats, and highly professional Asian immigrants since 2007 have also done so.
But Latino voters, especially though not just in South Texas and South Florida, turned to Republicans in the Trump era. Polls show that Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley’s decline feel they identify with illegal immigrants crossing the border.
And Florida may see an influx of highly skilled anti-socialist refugees from the new leftist governments in Argentina, Peru and Chile, as has already happened in Venezuela and Cuba.
Where immigrants do not pass is also important, only 5% of the 2020-2021 immigrant influx in California and only 2% in Illinois. And immigrants added less than one-tenth of the 1% to the populations of the fast-growing Carolinas and Georgia and the slower-growing Midwest.
BIRTH
The number of births in the 12 months to July 1, 2021 3,582,000, 9% less than the average from 2010 to 2019.
You have to go back to 1979 to locate a year with fewer births, and you can go back to the 1790 census and possibly you would not locate a year with fewer births as a percentage of the population (1. 1%).
Birth rates are lowest in the six New England states and in Oregon, founded through New England on the west coast. They are also low in Florida and West Virginia, with their elderly populations. In recent years, some states, like Maine and West Virginia, had more births than deaths; Between April 2020 and July 2021, 25 states did.
Which states have the highest birth rates?Not California or New York, whose pre-2007 immigrants have been prolific lately. In the year of the plague, its birth rate declined below the national average.
The most prolific are strongly Mormons in Utah, 3 sparsely populated states with mining and monetary sectors (Alaska and Dakotas) and Texas.
POLITICAL IMPACT
Politically, the 25 states headed by former President Donald Trump had 43% of the country’s population in the 2020 census, which ended April 1, but produced 44% of the country’s births and attracted 44% of their immigrants over the next 14 months. , ending July 1, 2021. Even as Biden’s Democrats took power, the demographics of the country shifted slightly to Republicans in the year of the plague.
After Maxwell’s verdict, other people wonder how Bill Clinton is not in prison.