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During a crossover campaign in the state, Donald Trump thought he could pass his rival if the governor of Florida crowned the position at the moment in the polls.
By Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Trip Gabriel and Shane Goldmacher
During Tuesday’s campaign in New Hampshire, Donald J. Trump expressed such confidence in his consolidation of the Republican electorate that he said he would likely soon have to find a rival to attack besides Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The former president, who has a habit of speaking loudly about his own crusading strategy, said a strategist on his team told him to oppose Republican polls at the time.
“‘Don’t attack the third, fourth, fifth or sixth, worry about two,'” Trump said, quoting his adviser. Then, mentioning some polls that looked like his lead had widened since his federal indictment two weeks ago, Trump predicted DeSantis would be overtaken by his rivals.
“Soon I don’t think I’m going to be in the place of the moment,” he said. “Then I’m going to attack someone else. “
Mr. Trump made the impression in Concord on the same day as Mr. Trump. DeSantis also campaigned in New Hampshire, with the party’s two main challengers occupying very different political positions: one the dominant favorite in the state, the other still looking for a foothold. .
Campaign strategists agreed that the state will play a leading role in deciding who will lead the GOP in the 2024 election in opposition to President Biden.
Trump sees the first number one contest in New Hampshire as a first chance to blank the box full of rivals. And the members of Team DeSantis, some of whom watched from the sidelines as Trump crossed Granite State in 2016 on his way to the nomination: I expect New Hampshire to be the main one to throw out the two-man Republican picture.
“Iowa’s cornfields were once where the field killed, and now New Hampshire is where the field is going to die,” said Jeff Roe, lead strategist for M’s super PAC. DeSantis, Never Back Down. M. Roe has horrific memories of 2016, when he led the presidential crusade of the last guy to oppose Mr. Trump: Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
In an hour-long speech at a Republican women’s luncheon, Trump mentioned an audio recording that surfaced Monday of a verbal exchange that appears to be in his indictment for mishandling classified documents. In the 2021 recording, Trump refers to what he calls a “top-secret” plan to attack Iran.
Avoiding any main issue of the indictment, Trump claimed Tuesday that he was being pursued by “fake prosecutors” and boasted that then “my numbers went up. “He noted that an investigation through St. Anselm released Tuesday showed he was winning five percentage problems since a vote in March, while Mr. DeSantis lost 10 problems. Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor and caustic critic of Trump since entering the race this month, was in third place but still far behind Trump and DeSantis.
In an interview, Christie, a former federal prosecutor, said it was “absurd” for Trump to call his allegations “a badge of honor” because, as the former president said, “I’m impeached by you. “
“How did he help the rest of Americans keep the nation’s secrets at Mar-a-Lago unsecured for 18 months?” said Christie. “If else in America did something like that, they would laugh at the scene. “
The New Hampshire electorate is infamous for being fickle and difficult, infuriatingly.
However, by mid-2023, the state, more secular than Iowa and with a libertarian leaning, seems frozen in place. Trump, now twice impeached and twice impeached, is not as dominant with Republicans as he was in 2020, but he is more potent than he was in 2016, and his closest challenger is him.
In 2016, Trump won New Hampshire with a blunt and incendiary message, fanning the flames about terrorist threats and without performing any of the retail political operations that are historically required. But local officials and officials that Trump, with his celebrity prestige for decades, is the only politician who can get away with it.
“In fact, it’s not going to be anything that Ron DeSantis can accomplish,” said Jason Osborne, the New Hampshire House majority leader who subsidized the Florida governor for president. “You have to do the exercise like everyone else. “
Polls suggest there is a chance to elect Trump. But to be that person, Mr. DeSantis has miles of floor to catch up. On Tuesday in Hollis, N. H. , DeSantis delivered his speech once at City Hall, focusing on much of his record in Florida in front of a generally receptive crowd.
As recently as January, DeSantis led Trump in the state by a smart margin, according to a University of New Hampshire poll. But DeSantis has fallen sharply, with recent polls suggesting his help is among teens and more than 25 percent matter to Trump.
In a move that some saw as ominous, Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis super PAC, left the airwaves in New Hampshire in mid-May and came with the state on its newest reserves, which only cover Iowa and South Carolina.
DeSantis’ allies insist the move was aimed at managing the resources of the Boston market, which they said was an expensive and inefficient way to succeed in number one voters. And they said Mr. DeSantis would have a competitive schedule in the state.
“We are confident that the governor’s message will resonate with the New Hampshire electorate as he continues to Granite State and signals his responses to Joe Biden’s failures,” Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for DeSantis, said in a statement.
However, much of DeSantis’ early moves appear to be aimed at Iowa and its caucuses, which are governed by top conservative activists, many of whom are evangelicals. In contrast, New Hampshire has an open number one that will allow independents, who have a tendency to be more moderate, to vote. And without a competitive Democratic number one in 2024, they may constitute a giant component of the GOP’s number one vote.
Iowa is where Mr. DeSantis hosted his first event and where his super PAC conducted its $100 million door-to-door operation.
DeSantis’ signing of a six-week abortion ban will be popular in New Hampshire, where even the state’s Republican governor has described himself as “pro-choice. “
Trump and DeSantis’ confrontational events this week have rattled the nerves of local officials. DeSantis’ resolution to schedule a city corridor in Hollis on Tuesday at the same time as the influential New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women welcomes Trump at its Lilac Luncheon. It provoked a backlash. The group’s director of events, Christine Peters, said “bringing in a contestant and distracting them” from the group’s event is “unprecedented. “
Mayor DeSantis will mark his fourth trip to New Hampshire this year and his moment since delivering his crusade in May.
DeSantis gave tokens in April when he helped the New Hampshire Republican Party to a record sum at a fundraising dinner. And he got more than 50 endorsements from state officials. But before Tuesday’s mayoral election, he had not answered questions from the New Hampshire electorate. in a classic setting.
On his last trip to the state, a four-stop excursion on June 1, Mr. DeSantis lashed out at a reporter who asked him why he didn’t answer voters’ questions.
“What are you going?” DeSantis said. “Are you blind?”
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said in an interview that there was “a lot of interest” in Mr. DeSantis from voters who had seen him on TV but wanted to see him up close.
“Can you face our exam?” Mr. Sununu said. ” I think he will personally do quite well here,” he added, but “the most important thing” in voters’ minds is “what will it look like when he knocks on my door?”
Indeed, the New Hampshire electorate will be subject to thousands of knocks on DeSantis’ door, but not of the same kind. It outsourced its floor game to Never Back Down, which is expected to have more than $200 million. The organization has already knocked on more than 75,000 gates in New Hampshire, according to a PAC superofficer, a standard number at the start of the race.
But DeSantis faces daunting challenges.
Trump remains popular among Republicans, and even more so after his accusations. And it doesn’t take the state for granted. Unlike in 2016, its operation ran hard in the state for months, with influential figures such as former Republican Party Chairman Stephen Stepanek representing Mr. S. Republican. Trump.
DeSantis’ biggest challenge is the length of the terrain. If the top applicants stay in the race until early next year, a repeat of 2016 is likely to be inevitable. In a packed field, Trump won the state with more than 35% of the vote. The vote.
Meanwhile, DeSantis wants “a defining message that goes beyond the small base he has,” said Tom Rath, a veteran of New Hampshire politics who has pleaded for the presidential campaigns of Republican candidates, adding Mitt Romney and George W. Bush. “It has to do genuine retail sales, so there’s no indication it can do that. “
Ruth Igielnik contributed to the report.
Jonathan Swan is a political journalist who focuses on campaigns and Congress. As a reporter for Axios, he received an Emmy Award for his 2020 interview with then-President Donald J. Trump, and the White House Correspondents Association’s Aldo Beckman Award for “General Excellence. “in White House coverage” in 2022. @jonathanvswan
Maggie Haberman is a senior political correspondent and member of “Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America. “He was part of a team that won a Pulitzer Prize in 2018 for reporting on President Trump’s advisers and their ties to Russia. . @maggieNYT
Trip Gabriel is a national correspondent. He has covered the last two presidential campaigns and served as Mid-Atlantic bureau leader and national education reporter. In the past, he edited the sections Estilos. Se joined The Times in 1994. @tripgabriel • Facebook
Shane Goldmacher is a national political reporter and was once the chief political correspondent for Metro’s bureau. Prior to joining The Times, he worked at Politico, where he covered national Republican politics and the presidential campaign of 2016. @ShaneGoldmacher
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