Auburn isn’t about to throw this game away — literally. See why Payton Thorne should carve up Maryland on the ground, and how our college football picks are targeting the best bet for the Music City Bowl.
The Auburn Tigers and Maryland Terrapins hope to sing a winning song when they meet this afternoon in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. College football odds put the Tigers in favor of almost a touchdown.
Auburn still wonders how it failed to pull off a disappointment over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and coach Hugh Freeze needs Saturday’s win to solidify a winning record in his first season at the helm. Quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled this season, but the Tigers boast one of the nation’s running attacks.
The Terps will play without quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, after the Big Ten’s assists leader opted to retire to prepare for the NFL Draft. He’s been guilty of several wins and Mike Locksley will prepare for next season with two more quarterbacks in this one. .
Our flexible school football picks and predictions for today’s Music City Bowl detail the odds for the Auburn vs. Maryland bowling game and why a specific player deserves to have a forged game on the field.
Maryland has struggled this season to fully contain scrambling quarterbacks, and that’s why we’re backing Payton Thorne to do some damage on the ground as our best bet on Saturday.
Northwestern beat Maryland 33-27 in late October, and Wildcats quarterback Brendan Sullivan had his running game of the season. He rushed for 56 yards on 14 carries, adding an 18-yard run.
The scenario was similar when the Terps defeated Rutgers. Gavin Wimsatt ran for 48 yards on 16 carries, reaching the goal zone twice in what was his fourth-best overall rushing performance of the year.
Penn State’s Drew Allar has been selective this season when he popped up, but his 39 yards on just 4 carry just one lead as he split Maryland through the air in a 51-15 victory.
And the Terps were supposed to limit Jeff Sims to just 33 yards on 10 carries against Nebraska, but backup quarterback Chubba Purdy matched that total on just 3 carries as the Huskers narrowly lost.
Between Payton Thorne, he’s been mediocre this season throwing the ball, accumulating just 1,671 yards through the air, but he’s averaging 4. 2 yards consistent with the run, which is impressive when his rushing numbers come down to 28 catches. what’s wrong with it. had this season.
His legs are part of an Auburn rushing offense that ranks 21st in success rate this season. The Tigers average 5. 0 yards per game and their 196. 3 yards per game are 15th in the country.
The raw numbers make Maryland’s defense look solid, as the Terps rank 21st in yards allowed per rush and 32nd in yards allowed per contest. But those numbers are aided by a layoff rate in the top 25. Maryland ranks 79th in defensive run success rate and 90th in defensive EPA based on playing career.
Auburn arguably wouldn’t win this game passing the ball. Several receivers left or entered the motion portal, exhausting a unit that wasn’t very smart to begin with. Maryland has a more sensible 20-pass defense in terms of EPA consistency. with play and an interception rate in the 5 most sensible.
Only seven high school football teams make a higher percentage of rushing plays than the Tigers, and Thorne will have opportunities against a defense that has shown a propensity to consistently allow opposing quarterbacks heavy plays. Bet365 has Thorne’s career odds for the Music City Bowl, and at -115, we’re counting on him to win at least 48 on the field.
My Most Productive Bet: Payton Thorne or 47. 5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365) Choices made at the time of writing may not reflect the actual odds.
Payton Thorne or 47. 5 yards Payton Thorne or 0. 5 interceptions Under 50. 5 points
Between Auburn’s struggles shooting and Maryland without Tagovailoa, I don’t see this game surpassing the 50-point mark. The total is set at 47. 5, but there’s a bit of wiggle room here.
In addition, we helped Thorne make an interception. Maryland’s defense catches one of 24 passes, and Thorne has thrown interceptions in three of his last four games, adding two against Alabama. The four picks launched in that span came in just 82 pass attempts.
Combine those games with our most productive bet, bet365 offers you odds of 525 for a very good bet on the same game!
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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The hole for that play opened with Auburn as the 2. 5-point favorite, however, it was temporarily closed once the news of Tagovailoa’s non-participation was announced. The Tigers are now at -6. 5, and I think maybe that’s too much.
I like Auburn winning outright, but I’m not sure I’d back them up to win by touchdown. Maryland has a forged defense and the Tigers will want to handle the ball to score points. If they fall behind, I’m not sure Payton can catch up.
On the other hand, Auburn and Maryland’s career average ranks 35th in the EPA based on the game. This allowed the Terps to cover the gap, which they have done in three games in a row.
The 47. 5 overall was also especially replaced with the news of Maryland’s quarterback’s absence. The number increased from 48. 5 to 45. 5 before moving to the existing number.
As I said in the SGP analysis, the Under is the most powerful play here. Auburn has one of the most productive defenses in the red zone in high school football, and Maryland will most likely be forced to settle for goals in the box on several occasions. Running with the ball will also help keep the overall level low.
The first quarter overall is 7-1 in Auburn’s last 8 games. See more school football trends for Auburn vs Maryland.
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