Recently, India has been experiencing heartburn due to the steady deepening of relations between Russia and China. Much of this debate was sparked by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s stopover in Beijing and the announcement that President Vladimir Putin will stop in Beijing in May. The stopover was made in China in October 2023.
In fact, Sino-Russian relations are now galloping at an unprecedented speed. The bilateral industry between the two now stands at more than $240 billion. China is Russia’s largest importer of crude oil, supplying 19% of its total crude oil imports from Russia.
Chinese cars occupied 49% of the Russian car market position in 2023. From seafood to the fashion industry to tourism, links are developing exponentially. And much of this is being positioned in currencies, triggering what some are calling the “yuanization” of the Russian economy. .
The Chinese yuan has been used for 34. 5% of Russia’s total export invoices over the past two years, i. e. since Russia started its operations in Ukraine.
China, which has declared itself “neutral” in the Ukrainian conflict, has necessarily sided with Russia.
Still, armor flaws persist.
On the one hand, the “no limits” partnership has prevented China from protecting itself from secondary sanctions. Thus, while Chinese customers’ goods have temporarily filled the gaps left by the withdrawal of Western corporations from the Russian market, this is the case for Chinese ones. Investments.
China has slowed down its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plans in Russia, while its shipments to Europe have bypassed Russian territory. In addition, while it continues to buy crude oil, gas, inert gas, and grain from Russia, it maintains a diversified portfolio. basket and conducts arduous negotiations.
Second, the risk of Chinese immigrants, especially in the Far East, continues to frighten Russia. One of the reasons why Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on his stopover in Vladivostok, discussed opening up the Russian Far East market to India’s hard work was to fight Chinese migration in a much more controlled and manageable way.
While Russia aggressively courts Chinese tourists, allowing even visa-free package tours, it recently announced that it is on the verge of eliminating the visa regime in general for Chinese visitors.
Last year, shortly after the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, China systematically unveiled its map that listed not only Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as a territory, but also the Russian-disputed territory of Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island as an integral part. The Russians downplayed it, calling it a “misunderstanding” that would be addressed locally.
The Chinese, however, have their own view of their position in the global order, as does Russia’s. In a March 13 South China Morning Post op-ed titled Ten Reasons Why China and Russia Differ in Their Approach to International Rules, Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, explained how Russia and China, while having a close strategic partnership, They had other perspectives and behaviors on the global stage.
China emphasizes inclusivity, while Russia’s relations with the West have traditionally been more contentious. While China has a small national character, Russians inherited from their nomadic ancestors the tendency to migrate in search of expansion.
When it comes to engaging with other countries, Chinese culture emphasizes the importance of upholding justice in the face of wrongdoing. The Russian technique is to beat others at their own game. While China observes foreign regulations, Russia asks others to abide by foreign regulations. and is considered exempt from such regulations.
Since op-eds in Chinese publications, including Hong Kong publications such as the SCMP, written by academics from state-owned establishments are deliberate, a message has been conveyed. However, the Russian response was swift.
In an op-ed written for the Chinese in the Russian media outlet Sputnik, columnist Leonid Kovachich reminded China of its numerous disputes within the World Trade Organization (WTO), its refusal to recognize the judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague on the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, its national security law for Hong Kong, circumventing its agreement with Britain and others.
Finally, and this is China’s weak point. China is wary of Russia’s turn to the East and is averse to Russian incursions into ASEAN countries and North Korea, even as it welcomes Russia’s fear of Ukraine penetrating Central Asia, Russia’s strategic backyard. .
Russian strategic thinkers have identified that China is not interested in Russia’s active participation in organizations such as the recent Boao Forum or those of ASEAN, of which China is considered the main driver.
In a 2022 article, Sergei A. Lukonin, head of the China economy and policy sector at the Moscow-based Primakov Institute for World Economy and International Relations, wrote: “One would possibly wonder who China is to Russia under the existing conditions: a friend. “, an ally, a partner, an impartial business partner, a difficult negotiator, an implicit opponent. The answer would possibly be – depending on the scenario and the interests of the moment – is China all of those things for Russia at the same time?”.
For India, the path would possibly be obvious: deepen its engagement with Russia to counter China.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. Tweet @aditijan. This is an opinion piece and the reviews expressed above are those of the author. The Quint does not condone it or be guilty of it. )
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