Former President Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 counts of tampering with business records at his felony trial in Manhattan, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already unprecedented campaign.
As a convicted felon, Trump is not barred from continuing his presidential campaign, as the Constitution does not prohibit applicants from running for president even if they are convicted of a crime. In fact, there is a precedent of a candidate running for bars: In 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs ran for president from a federal penitentiary in Atlanta.
Trump is the first former U. S. president convicted of crimes and the first primary party candidate to run after being convicted of a felony. Here’s how his conviction could replace the 2024 campaign:
Now that he has been convicted, Trump will almost certainly appeal the jury’s decision, and he will most likely resume the election campaign as the proceedings unfold.
The next progression of the case will come to sentencing, last scheduled for July 11. Judge Juan Merchan has broad discretion over when the sentence will be imposed and the nature of the penalty. Trump faces a maximum sentence of 4 years in criminal offenses and a $5,000 fine for each of the 34 counts of falsifying business documents. Sentencing features available to Merchan include imprisonment, probation, probation, fines, or space arrest.
The trial may simply impose limits on his travel, such as barring Trump from leaving the state and taking his passport, but Merchan said he didn’t need to interfere with his ability to campaign.
“I think the judgment on him wouldn’t dare interfere with his right to speak to the American public because it’s also the right of the electorate to be informed,” said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School and an expert on corporate law. Governance and white-collar crime.
In a recent investigation of dozens of cases filed through the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in which tampering with business documents was the most serious rate at arraignment, the attorney and Norm Eisen found that about one in ten cases resulted in a criminal conviction.
“I think it’s fascinating,” said Caroline Polisi, a corrupt lawyer and professor at Columbia Law School. “Many commentators say the explanation for why he wouldn’t be let down is that the logistics would be too heavy for the secret service. “On the other hand, if you say you will be treated like any other defendant, we have a lot of knowledge indicating that 90% of the other defendants would not be convicted of a crime in that situation. “
The effect of the conviction on Trump’s campaign ability may depend largely on what sentence Merchan ultimately imposes and when Trump serves it.
“In the context of being convicted and then sentenced to no criminal sentence, I don’t think there’s any difference,” Posi added. “There may also be some minor issues. He probably wouldn’t vote for himself. But other than that, I don’t think it will cause any problems. “
In sentencing Trump, the trial may take into account his violations of the gag order (which led Merchan to threaten him with prison if the violations continued) and his demonstrated lack of remorse or respect for the legal system. , Trump called Merchan “confrontational” and “corrupt” and called the case itself a “sham. ”
“In New York, a 78-year-old defendant, who committed a crime for the first time, committed a nonviolent crime and, in a different way, has a prominent position beyond; In a way, being a former president is prominent. In these kinds of cases in the world, there would be no possibility of being sentenced to prison,” Coffee said. Trump will turn 78 on June 14. ” They can get probation, they can get fines. But many judges might say yes. It will have to be shown that no one is above the law and that even the long-term president deserves to be given the taste of prison. “
Even if Merchan orders Trump to serve a sentence, sentencing could simply be deferred until his appeal is over.
“In other cases, when there is no candidate in the White House, it would be more appropriate to incarcerate them immediately,” Coffee said. “You can impose special situations on him about what he might do or put him under space arrest. “however, I think until we get to the election, we’re going to have to let Donald Trump do a crusade and a crusade. “
Trump predicted that a conviction in this trial could breathe life into his poll results.
“Even if he’s convicted, I think it surely won’t have any impact. It may just increase the numbers, but we don’t need it. We need to have a fair verdict,” Trump told CBS Pittsburgh in an interview earlier this month. .
The inside of his Trump Republican base has been remarkably resilient in the face of his various criminal cases. In the months since his four indictments last year, Trump has maintained his lead in the Republican primary, winning the nomination despite dozens of felon charges. He faced.
Many Trump supporters interviewed via CBS News since the trial began said a guilty conviction would not replace the way they voted in November, backing up the former president’s complaints.
“Stormy Daniels has already been vetted and all that. It’s kind of a coincidence,” Michigan resident Lori Beyer said at a recent rally in Freeland, Michigan, adding that she would vote for Trump regardless of conviction. As far as I’m concerned, it’s going to have an impact. “
It remains to be seen whether a conviction will replace the minds of the electorate that is not attached to the former president. A recent CBS News poll found that a majority of Americans believed Trump was “definitely or probably” guilty of the charges against him in New York. The overwhelming majority of Democrats (93%) believe Trump is to blame, while 78% of Republicans said they are not. Independents were divided: 53% believed he was to blame and 47% said he was not.
Opinions on whether or not Trump is to blame were already highly partisan, according to Kabir Khanna, deputy director of elections and insights research at CBS News. Most people who think Trump is the culprit also think the jury would convict him, and vice versa.
In addition, Khanna said that other people who closely followed the trial were the most polarized in their opinions.
“Together, those points may also mitigate the verdict’s effect on the opinions of an already divided public,” Khanna said. “Some voters might be influenced by the news, but I wouldn’t expect a radical change. ” “.
Other ballots support this idea. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist ballot released Thursday found that 67 percent of the national registered electorate said a conviction of Trump would make no difference in how they vote. Among independents, only 11 percent said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote. for Trump.
The conviction also provides Biden’s crusade with a potentially tough new weapon in its arsenal: the ability to label Trump a convicted felon. Biden has remained largely silent on Trump’s trial while it was underway, however, NBC News reported last week that he plans to be more competitive about Trump’s legal turmoil after the trial concludes, while acknowledging that Trump will be in the polls regardless of how his trial continues. Judicial proceedings have been carried out.
Trump has used the lawsuit to boost his fundraising and will likely seek to capitalize on his conviction. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee saw an influx of donations after the jury meeting began, with the two entities raising $76 million in April. The campaign had about $50 million in cash in early May as it prepared to resume the election campaign after the trial.
The former president has continually taken advantage of advances in the process to raise funds, adding when he tried in contempt for violating the gag order that was imposed on him.
“I’d be arrested A MILLION TIMES before you let those dirty dogs get their hands on you,” reads a typical fundraising appeal.
The New York case may be the only one of Trump’s four criminal prosecutions that managed to reach a conclusion before the electorate vote in the fall, giving more weight to the guilty verdict.
The two federal instances put special counsel Jack Smith in limbo.
In Washington, D. C. , Trump faces charges similar to his moves to remain in force after the 2016 election. Trump has argued that he is immune from prosecution and lately the Supreme Court has granted his request.
The High Court heard arguments in the immunity dispute on April 26 and is expected to make a ruling on the matter before the end of the court’s term, most likely in June. If the case moves forward, there is a small chance that the district court will set the trial before November. If the justices side with Trump and find him immune from prosecution, the charges opposing him would be dropped.
In Florida, Trump is facing federal fees for keeping classified documents after leaving the White House. Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, postponed the trial indefinitely. In early May, he ruled that opting for a trial date would be “reckless and inconsistent with the court’s duty to fully and consider” many unresolved pretrial motions. These motions stem from Trump’s efforts to dismiss the case entirely, as well as issues similar to classified data that would possibly be revealed at trial.
In the third case still pending, Trump faces state fees similar to those from the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia. The trial in this case is also on hold as Trump seeks to get prosecutor Fani Willis to drop the case. The Georgia Court of Appeals recently accepted Trump’s appeal against a ruling that had allowed him to stay, temporarily halting the trial.
Trump’s two federal problems could be largely in the hands of the electorate if they aren’t resolved until November, expanding his personal stake in the outcome. If he wins and returns to the White House in January 2025, Trump could simply order the Justice Department to try to eliminate fees altogether.
Trump has pleaded guilty in every criminal case against him.