Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election appear to have been hit especially hard by the guilty verdict in his secret trial, according to polls.
On May 30, a New York City jury found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to cover the cash payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.
Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, has denied any wrongdoing. He claims the trial was “rigged” and that the case is an attempt to save him from winning in November against President Joe Biden.
While some polls imply that Trump was harmed by his felony conviction in a close race, more recent research also implies that the trial did not seriously damage his hopes for the White House.
A survey on problems and perspectives (I
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The vote also found that independents remain largely in favor of Trump over Biden (38% vs. 26%).
“If a sudden mass exodus of Trump’s electorate was expected following his legal defeat, they were actually disappointed,” wrote Terry Jones, editor of I
Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll of 10,404 registered voters, conducted between May 31 and June 2 in the days after the jury’s verdict in New York, found that Trump now leads Biden by one point (44% to 43%).
In a Morning Consult vote conducted on May 31, the day after Trump’s conviction, Biden edged Trump by one point (45% to 44%) in a vote of 2,200 registered voters.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email.
Mark Shanahan, a professor of American politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, has warned in the past that Trump could “disappear” in the long term once the electorate becomes more aware of the importance of seeing a convicted felon run for election. office.
“The opinion about Trump is already widespread across the country and this verdict will replace it,” he told Newsweek.
“In the short term, your polls, and even your fundraising, might reap advantages from a boost, but that could run out in the coming weeks and months as the electorate moves beyond the excitement of the Court’s ruling and focuses on the fact that the former president was convicted through a jury of his peers: 12 citizens who evaluated the tests and simply did not.
Trump, who has vowed to appeal his conviction, is expected to be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts have reported that Trump will be sentenced to prison.
Speaking outdoors in the New York courtroom after his sentencing, Trump called the proceedings a “disgrace,” adding, “The genuine verdict will be pronounced on November 5 through the people. “
Update 06/05/2024, 9:09 a. m. ET: Name has been changed.
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News reporter founded in London, UK. It focuses on U. S. politics, domestic politics, and the courts. He joined Newsweek in February 2018 after spending several years working at the UK’s International Business Times, where he primarily reported on crime. , policy and existing issues. Prior to that, he worked as a freelancer after graduating from the University of Sunderland in 2010. Languages: English.
You can reach Ewan by emailing e. palmer@newsweek. com.
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