As Donald Trump’s trial in New York nears his closing arguments, most Americans are guilty of a crime in the case, but they’re not so sure what the jury will do after their deliberations next week.
56% (a majority) say Trump is definitely or very likely guilty of a crime in the case, in which he was accused of falsifying business documents to conceal a “hush money” payment and influence the 2016 election.
Opinions are very partisan, almost all Trump Democrats are guilty and about 8 out of ten Republicans say otherwise. Republicans are less sure of their point of view. While 3 in 4 Democrats say he is “definitely” guilty, only a portion of Republicans say he is “not at all. “
The public is more divided over what they think the jury will decide: one side expects jurors to blame Trump and the other side says the opposite. And the opinions of both sides are true. For example, more jurors say they will. “probably” condemning Trump than “definitely” condemning him.
If others are to blame for Trump, they tend to believe that the jury will convict him. And vice versa for those who think that he is not guilty of any crime. But about a third of each organization expects the jury to make a decision contrary to what they themselves do
Overall, about three-quarters of Americans say they have heard or read at least a few articles about the trial. And those who say they’ve heard “a lot” about him are the ones who are most polarized in their opinions: they’re probably the most polarized. identify as staunch supporters and express greater confidence in Trump’s guilt or innocence, which could reduce the impact of a verdict on public opinion.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a nationally representative pattern of 1,402 U. S. adult citizens surveyed between May 14 and May 21, 2024. The data comes with an excessive pattern in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The gender, age, race, and education weighted pattern, is based on the U. S. Census of the American Community. The U. S. and Current Population Survey, as well as in previous votes. The margin of error is ±4. 4 points.
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