Donald Trump has lost his lead in the polls to Joe Biden, due to a continuous tracking tool.
In March, the former president and current president won enough primaries to secure the Republican and Democratic nominations for the 2024 presidential election, respectively. Polls so far have shown that the effects will be similar, as the two pairs are statistically tied at the poll maximum, or only have a marginal advantage.
However, according to a new Morning Consult poll, Trump has lost his lead over his rival. On May 28, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points, but now he is ahead of him by one percentage point. While Biden has 44% of the potential vote to Trump’s 43%, it is the first time the Democrat has beaten the Republican since early May.
The survey was conducted among 10,260 registered voters from June 7 to 9. The margin of error is /- 1 percentage point.
Newsweek reached out to a representative for Trump via email for comment outside of general business hours.
The vote comes after Trump was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records, similar to a secret $130,000 payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump, who has denied having an affair and acting wrong, said the case. He is politically motivated and his lawyers said they would appeal. Since the verdict, he has faced a number of negative votes.
However, while national polls are interesting, thanks to the U. S. Electoral College system, which assigns each state a set number of electoral votes based on its population, national polls are more reliable in determining the final results of elections. A presidential candidate will have to download 270 electoral votes to win, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Other polls recommend that Trump is in the lead, and with five months to go before the electorate casts its vote, it is still too early to wait for the final results of the election.
Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, founding director of the Center for American Policy at University College London, U. K. , said the change in polls is “minor” and that “Biden and Trump are statistically tied. “
He said small changes like those seen in the Morning Consult poll are so minor as to be virtually negligible, concluding that Trump’s loss of margin reflects his recent felony conviction, that he is overinterpreting the data and that the end result is that Biden and Trump are statistically tied.
Meanwhile, Mark Shanahan, a professor of U. S. politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, said there have been “ups and downs for the candidates. “
“It’s been an up-and-down week for both candidates,” he told Newsweek. “There is a suggestion that Trump’s 34 felony convictions are not to the liking of independents, and Biden’s presence on the beaches of Normandy to commemorate D-Day has worked well. “with veterans and older voters.
“But the horrors in Gaza are undermining Biden’s foreign policy credentials, and the Hunter Biden arms trial is sucking positive oxygen out of the country. Meanwhile, Trump enjoys the challenger’s credit when it comes to getting back on track, defying any Biden. done without being guilty of anything.
“All the polls are within the margin of error in a close race between two unpopular candidates. We are still in a phony war with nothing in the polls until the candidates begin their first 1:1 debate. “
The presidential elections will take place on November 5.
Kate Plummer is a Newsweek journalist founded in London, UK. She focuses on U. S. politics and domestic affairs and is primarily interested in the effect of social policy decisions on other people, as well as political campaign finances, corruption, and foreign policy toward democracy. procedure and more. Prior to joining Newsweek, he covered British politics extensively. Kate joined Newsweek in 2023 after leaving The Independent and has also been featured in several publications, including the Times and Daily Mail. He holds a B. A. in History from Oxford University and a Master’s degree in Magazine Journalism from the City, University of London.
Languages: English.
You can reach Kate by emailing k. plummer@newsweek. com or by following her on X on @kateeplummer.
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