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“Coercive diplomacy” can leave Tehran in the hands of a negotiated dismantlement of its nuclear capability or a forced dismantlement.
By David E. Sanger
David E. Sanger has covered Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the diplomatic and covert efforts to undermine them, for three decades.
President-elect Donald J. Trump will face an Iran that will suddenly be much more fragile than during his first administration, its leadership more uncertain and its nuclear program more exposed and vulnerable to attack.
This new truth has sparked an internal debate about how he handles his management in Tehran: with an opening to negotiations or with an attack on its nuclear enrichment program, overt or covert, or perhaps initiated through Israel.
Or, as many suggest, a round of “coercive diplomacy” that leaves Tehran to choose either a negotiated disassembly of its nuclear capability, or a forced one.
The urgency of the issue was underscored on Sunday by Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, who told Fareed Zakaria of CNN that with Iran’s main proxies weakened or eliminated, “it’s no wonder there are voices saying ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now.’”
He added that he had a “real risk” that Iran would drop a bomb on Trump’s national security team and on the Israelis.
In interviews over the past two weeks, U. S. and foreign officials have said the ominous dance over Iran’s nuclear future could take a dramatic turn in the coming months. The assessment came after the UN’s most sensible nuclear inspector warned that Iran was accelerating its enrichment of near-atomic grade uranium.
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