In recent days, there has been a mini media typhoon surrounding Google’s announcement about Willow, its new quantum computer, and a perceived risk to bitcoin. Most research shows a remarkably superficial insight into how quantum computing will replace cryptography, as well as how Bitcoin remains resistant to those kinds of technological advances. Let’s take a closer look at quantum computing and the risk it poses to bitcoin. This may get a little technical, but you need to scratch the surface and understand what these latest advances mean.
In short, quantum computing will almost certainly require a replacement of the Bitcoin protocol in the coming years, similar to computer upgrades that began during the year 2000. This will likely be a confusing and time-consuming task, but not will represent a problem. existential risk for bitcoin itself. And possibly it is not just Bitcoin that is affected, since we are dealing with the ability of quantum computers to decipher all types of cryptography that we use today in finance, commerce, banking, etc.
It’s hard not to wonder if some of this alarmism about the end of Bitcoin isn’t coming from a sort of “sour grapes” dynamic. Critics who have long avoided bitcoin – whether because they don’t believe it can ever work, because they are dissatisfied with the challenge to government control, or simply because they regret not investing when it was less expensive – are grateful. Google quantum computing news awaits bitcoin crash. These reactions say more about the prejudices of skeptics than about the vulnerabilities of bitcoin itself.
Google’s Willow quantum computer can perform calculations with 105 qubits, and its effects are considered (for now) to be accurate. While 105 qubits is a big step forward, breaking Bitcoin’s encryption would require between 1,536 and 2,338 qubits.
However, quantum computing poses a risk to Bitcoin that wants to be taken seriously, and the Bitcoin protocol will want to be updated as soon as possible. Conversations have already begun within the Bitcoin developer network about when and how to proceed. The answers are more specific, a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, or BIP, will be posted online for continued discussion and experimentation. If the network decides to incorporate it into the protocol, it will go into effect once the majority of Bitcoin nodes adopt it.
However, adjustments to Bitcoin to meet this challenge pale in comparison to what will be required of thousands of other secure computing networks and protocols. The effort to update the world’s cryptographic protocols is likely to prove much more complex than preparing for the year 2000.
Focusing on how quantum computing will affect cryptocurrencies misses a much broader point: the end of encryption is rarely just a bitcoin problem, it’s a global problem. The transition to a post-quantum globality will pose a basic challenge to the backbone of civilization.
Encryption is the bedrock of modern life, underpinning virtually every aspect of tech-enabled society. Financial systems rely on RSA encryption to secure online banking transactions, ensuring that sensitive details like credit card numbers and account credentials are safe from theft. Without encryption, there is no banking system.
E-commerce platforms use the same principles to protect payment data as it moves between buyers and sellers. Without encryption, there is no e-commerce.
Hospitals and medical services rely on encryption to transfer electronic health records and procedure payments. Without encryption, there is no fashionable medical system.
Government agencies use encryption to protect classified communications and protect national secrets from potential adversaries. Without encryption, there is no national security.
Encryptions of secure Internet of Things (IoT) devices, from connected cars to smart home systems, preventing bad actors from taking over everyday technology. Without encryption, there are no smart devices.
Although we could still be years or even decades away from the end of conventional encryption methods, preparation for quantum supremacy has already begun in light of the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat.
One of the key features of encryption is that it allows you to send secure messages over insecure channels. For instance, when you log into your bank account on your home computer, your password is encrypted before being sent over the internet to your bank. Along the way, it may pass through numerous servers that could theoretically save and store it. However, since the password is encrypted, it would look like nothing more than a string of gibberish. If you were a bad actor, you could not decipher it, so saving it would be pointless.
That is, unless you leave it for many years waiting for the day when you can decipher it on a quantum computer that has not yet been invented.
That kind of patience wouldn’t pay off when it comes to stealing bank passwords. Like many other encrypted data, banking passwords lose their relevance beyond a certain time horizon. Passwords change, accounts are closed, other people die, and banking establishments cease to exist. However, in some areas, encrypted knowledge can be useful years or even decades after it has been subsidized, such as knowledge similar to state secrets or password master lists reused across platforms.
If quantum computing is expected to crack encryption within a few years or decades, attackers in sensitive fields such as defense and intelligence would gather (and gather) all the encrypted knowledge they can get their hands on, even if it is ultimately unbreakable and useless. For this reason, the foundations are already being prepared for the transition to post-quantum cryptography.
While quantum computers will eventually crack existing encryption methods, they may also be used to expand even more complex cryptographic algorithms. In other words, quantum computing does not mark the end of cryptography itself, but rather the transition from existing cryptographic algorithms to newer quantum algorithms.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is an active domain of research generating promising advances aimed at protecting systems against long-term quantum threats, while preserving the basic principles of cryptographic security. Bitcoin, and everything else, will want to take advantage of advances in PQC for its integrity.
The basis of PQC lies in complex disorders that quantum computers are suitable for solving. Unlike existing cryptography, which is based on a mathematical concept called the “discrete logarithm problem” and the factorization of integers (any of which can be successfully solved by a sufficiently robust quantum computer), PQC algorithms depend on other independent frameworks. cryptography, multivariate polynomial equations, and hash-based signatures, all of which show great promise for resisting quantum attacks.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been at the forefront of this effort, coordinating a global initiative to standardize the PQC. After years of rigorous evaluation, NIST announced a set of candidate algorithms for post-quantum cryptographic criteria in 2022, focused on practical implementation and broad applicability across industries.
Although the transition to PQC will be complex, it is already taking shape. National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM-10) sets a target date of 2035 for migrating federal systems to quantum-resistant cryptographic methods. However, some systems that are vulnerable to “save now, decrypt later” attacks, such as government communications or secure monetary transactions, may require earlier adoption due to their higher threat profiles. To cover as much space as possible, NIST recommends prioritizing quantum-resistant key schemes in protocols such as TLS and IKE, which underpin secure communications over the Internet.
The path forward for PQC involves not only updating cryptographic standards but also ensuring compatibility with existing systems. This is a daunting task, given the diverse applications of encryption across industries, but it is essential to maintaining trust in our connected, digital world. As NIST continues to work with academia, industry, and governments, the widespread adoption of PQC will be a vital step in future-proofing the internet.
There’s no question that our digital lives will need to be upgraded to be quantum-resistant, one protocol at a time. There are so many protocols relying on encryption that there will inevitably be some mistakes and hacks along the way. Since bitcoin has become a critically important tool for global finance, there is little doubt that it will be one of the first out of the gate.
The transition to a post-quantum globality promises to be complicated, sometimes a little scary, but also exhilarating. After decades of studies and countless science fiction novels that sketch a vision of a post-quantum era, we are almost there yet. Quantum computing promises breakthroughs in fields ranging from medicine to complex materials, opening the way to probabilities and inventions that we may lightly believe today, and we are here for it.
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