As you know, I’m a cryptocurrency enthusiast, I think we’re close to the point at this point or maybe we’ve even noticed it. At the upper end of my positive expectations, I am a minor bull, with $120,000 as a target for the more sensible and perhaps an overshoot at $150,000. In my opinion, these height targets are not the most likely and now is a good time to take risks for those who can achieve a significant reduction.
I am not in the “Bitcoin to a million this year” acolyte organization. Bitcoin can reach $1 million, for various reasons, but not in this cycle. The most apparent way for Bitcoin to triumph in billions and millions would be for a beer at a bar to charge $100,000 in a catastrophic hyperinflation situation, but I don’t expect a dollar-death situation or any other economic Armageddon to occur. -if this is how it is enjoyed through experts on the Internet. Alternatively, Bitcoin, after three more halvings, could get there in 12 years under ideal economic and geopolitical circumstances, but even that is far-fetched. That 10x would be worth the wait and an annual compounding of around 25%, but it’s not bitcoin’s ultimate dream of $1 million until Christmas. A million dollars until Christmas? No.
A million dollars, in the distant future. . . maybe.
There is a fundamental problem I spotted when chatting with Davin Linn on his YouTube channel debating bitcoin maxi Samson Mow:
One question that cryptocurrency users are asking is: Is Bitcoin more likely to be the dominant cryptocurrency forever?Will it be the first cryptocurrency, like Neo in The Matrix, “The One”?It is possible, but the opposite is also possible. The mere option of Bitcoin being replaced seriously undermines the concept of a million-dollar coin under general economic circumstances.
My reservations are added to the fact that I am not a fan of deflationary cash. Hard cash doesn’t have a smart track record. In the old days, economies were “crucified on a cross of gold” and one only has to read about the “free cash” movement in the United States in the late 19th century to realize that all that glitters is not necessarily smart currency. The History of Money is a wonderful read and anyone thinking about making a $100,000 bet on Bitcoin, read it before spending your children’s school fees on Bitcoin.
I own crypto, I like crypto, I’ve been very bullish over the last 3 crypto winters and bearish on the next peaks, so I’m not a “rat poison squared” baby boomer disbeliever. I’m not even an anti “this time it’s different” guy. I’m a buy low and sell high guy and for this cycle BTC is no longer low.
So that’s the roadmap for all seasons: for the bulls, the bears and the super bears. It’s a map that will help you keep track of what you see, what will be held in Bitcoin, not what you think will happen next. Bitcoin will stick to one of those trajectories, and by doing so, it will get a clearer picture of the most likely outcome:
The Bitcoin chart with 3 imaginable trajectories to follow
The current level is faintly bearish, so it’s best to see the current trend as a level of stability awaiting the next development. Bull or bear will be revealed and then the trend with be strong and directional. The market doesn’t listen to us so we must listen to it.
For traders this is heaven, for BTC maxis it should be of no interest, for medium term investors it is a hold or sell moment. To me 70/30 this is the top, so I’ve been easing out. At the previous level it was a hold and pray, at this level it’s a derisking moment.
Trump is already “in”, will this be a time to “sell information”?Who knows, but it’s certain that Trumpology will become big business in the markets in the long run and its effect will be huge, no matter what tool you use. Inevitably, Trump will be less bad for Bitcoin than Democrats and their “choke points” and may lead to a flourishing of blockchain programs that have been stifled for years by regulators. This is where crypto’s next giant comebacks will occur, so this is where I’ll be exploring the landscape for opportunities. Many crypto investors don’t need to acknowledge that another crypto winter is coming, but a typical BTC pullback possibly doesn’t matter because the next cycle will start soon enough.
Disclaimer: I bitcoin.
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