If history is any indication, bitcoin could hit a new peak in a matter of weeks, which could present an opportunity to lock in gains.
According to a research firm K33, the flagship token is set to reach an all-time high in mid-January, just in time for the inauguration of Donald Trump.
In a recent post on its website, K33 outlined that, on average, there are 318 days between the first peak in a crypto cycle and its last. This cycle’s initial peak occurred on March 5, indicating that the final one in the current cycle may occur on January 17.
This date would coincide with the start of Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The new administration has proven to be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s year-end rally thanks to its promises to make Washington more crypto-friendly. This, combined with other points, such as the concept of Bitcoin’s National Reserve, helped propel the token’s value past the six-figure mark for the first time.
K33, however, noted that the enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies had possibly gotten out of control:
“The market is likely to have illusory expectations about the speed of policy substitution and overestimate its effect until the inauguration,” research director Vetle Lunde wrote in a December note. “We expect the current recovery to peak in mid-January before inauguration and see this domain as a natural domain to lessen the threat and make short-term gains. “
K33 projected the value of Bitcoin with two other methods. Depending on the cycle peaks beyond, the token could reach $146,000. But based on the projected expansion of Bitcoin’s developing market capitalization, it could reach only $212,500.
Adrian Zduńczyk, a licensed market technician familiar with Bitcoin’s ancient cycle, had previously told Business Insider to prepare for pullbacks that would follow. He predicts that corrections will begin between late January and February, between 15% and 30%. %, before a further rise can resume.
Meanwhile, a separate CCData study this month also suggests a peak will occur next year, albeit in a different time frame. According to the company, bitcoin peaks between 371 and 546 days after its last halving event, which last occurred in April. This mechanism occurs every four years and reduces the supply of new tokens by half.
“This estimate provides two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which Bitcoin is expected to peak at the beginning of the second quarter, and a bullish scenario that projects the asset’s value in November, reflecting trends seen in 2021,” the firm wrote.
In the base case, bitcoin could reach $155,000, CCData reported. If the bullish case instead occurs, it will succeed at $195,000.
In fact, K33 claimed that the four-year price cycle could lose relevance as Bitcoin grows.
“Halvings are becoming less material in their relative impact, and BTC adoption is happening at an institutional level. Bubbles and drawdowns are due to remain a common feature, but they emerge from new developments,” K33 said.
Both corporations noted that Bitcoin’s value has already deviated from cycle norms, suggesting that investors remain cautious when predicting value movements in the halving.
Regardless of how things play out in January, there will be no shortage of crypto bulls heading into 2025. Year-end forecasts range from $200,000 to $500,000, driven by ongoing institutional adoption, a relaxed backdrop, regulatory and macroeconomic regulations, and a broader rally in the crypto space.