By 2030, Europeans will buy 2 million fewer EVs in a year than investment researcher Jefferies predicted, adding to busy forecasters cutting their predictions.
If sales resume, the ban imposed across the European Union on the sale of new combustion cars until 2035 will be called into question.
High vehicle prices, unpredictable battery capacity, short range for long distances, and complicated charging discourage EV buyers. Private buyers are wary of unpredictable residual values, as Tesla’s price-cutting has caused a debacle in the second-hand market. The cars were intended to be less expensive to qualify than combustion cars, but that proposal also has to fall apart.
As the EV market weakens, brands will decide whether this is just a short-term issue or a major upgrade. In the latter case, the auto industry will face existential risk if governments fail to dilute or end mandates banning the sale of new combustion vehicles.
Last week, a study from management consultants McKinsey torpedoed the conventional wisdom that consumers, once converted to EVs, will remain convinced for life. The study said more than 40% of U.S. EV buyers want to return to internal combustion engine cars.
Sales of electric vehicles in Europe and the United States have weakened and Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, GM and Ford have reduced their overly ambitious targets.
A few months ago, investment bank UBS said that Europeans would buy almost millions of electric cars less than expected between 2024 and 2030.
UBS has reduced its forecast for vehicle sales in Europe to 8. 3 million in 2030, from 9. 6 million previously.
In its update Wednesday, Jefferies cut its EV sales forecast to 6. 8 million in 2030, from the 8. 9 million it released last year. Jefferies said sales would rise in 2024 to 2. 1 million, or a 16. 1% market share. , compared to the previous forecast of 2. 8 million (21%). In 2025, sales will reach 3. 2 million (24%) compared to 4. 1 million (30%) and will reach 6. 8 million (50%) in 2030 (8. 9 million 65%).
The European Union and the United Kingdom have decreed that electric vehicle sales will account for approximately 80% of all new sedan and SUV sales by 2030, and 100 percent by 2035. These goals are not just symbolic. Serious consequences will be imposed on brands that fail to meet their goals. In the United Kingdom, there is a fine of £15,000 ($19,000) for each ICE sold above the target.
While those goals seem more arduous, German brands have pressured politicians to try to soften them. European Parliament elections earlier this month produced more conservative MPs who are likely to settle for weaker targets. Expect eco-friendly equipment like Transport
Fall in carbon dioxide emissions in Europe. The European Union is considering a decarbonisation timetable in the coming years to reduce CO2 emissions and expand sustainable energies
Jefferies said sales would reach 10. 4 million in 2035 (75%), up from a previous forecast of 11. 9 million and 85%. In its report, Jefferies said it adjusted its forecasts due to slowing electric vehicle sales expansion. This is not detailed.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association, known by its French acronym ACEA, said Thursday that European sales of EVs fell 11% in May to 182,000, compared with the same month last year.
“Automakers are suffering from slow electric car sales as drivers are put off by high sticker costs and poor charging infrastructure. “This month’s resolution through the European Union to impose more price lists on Chinese electric cars threatens to make imported opportunities more expensive,” ACEA said.
When UBS lowered its forecast, it said it would continue to think that electric cars would eventually become the dominant choice for powertrains after 2030. The European Union could simply make the decision to moderate its campaign to require that all sales of new cars will be electric until 2035 and make that deadline longer, he added. The bank said in a report based on insights from its Evidence Lab customer survey.
Not every forecaster will be surprised by these cuts.
French automotive consultancy Inovev said in a report earlier this year that electric vehicle sales will account for 40% of the European market until 2030.
“We have a European policy less favourable to individual maritime transport and more favourable to shared maritime transport such as buses, metro, trams, trains, two wheels. In addition, more and more people will keep their cars longer due to emerging costs related to essential goods such as housing, individual health, education and leisure,” Jamel Taganza, vice president of Inovev, said in an email exchange.
“We believe in a slower development at the European level, due to factors like cost of EVs, charging infrastructure, the impact on the auto supply chain.”’
“Charging infrastructure is a complicated issue in itself. This requires a large investment, public and private, which the public at European, national and regional level are not willing to prioritise over other issues. And with a percentage of 40% in Europe, this means that complex countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and France will have a much higher percentage than other less evolved countries such as Italy, Spain and Eastern European countries,” Taganza said.
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