Just one day after being sworn in as president, Donald Trump fulfilled one of his first promises to the Bitcoin network by signing a full and unconditional pardon for Bitcoin folk hero and former Bitcoin Route operator Ross Ulbricht. Silk. Prediction markets have had an impressive success rate in predicting the results of political, social and sporting events, surpassing classic surveys and specialized analysis. Now, investors are turning their attention to what predictions the markets recommend in relation to Trump’s other Bitcoin promises.
Traditional surveys are following in the wake of the fax, gradually being supplanted by prediction markets like Polymarket. A recent example is the effects of the 2024 US presidential election, where Polymarket markets predicted Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race shortly after the June 27 debate. , weeks before its official launch.
Given Polymarket’s knack for accuracy, the focus is now on assessing the first moves of the very important first few months of Trump’s term. The first of many promises Trump made to the Bitcoin network was made when he pardoned Ross Ulbritch. Ulbritch’s pardon came hours after Polymarket. reached a probability of 95% following the signals of key government figures.
Current market position odds raise a 30% chance that Trump will find a national Bitcoin stockpile within his first hundred days, a fundamental promise that involves law enforcement withholding seized bitcoins to sell at auction. Moreover, the chances of the U. S. identifying a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025 are 60%.
Other Bitcoin-related prediction markets like the odds of the State of Texas signing the Bitcoin Reserve Act in 2025 are at 43%. For context, seven U.S. States have introduced legislation or proposals to create a bitcoin reserve at a state level. These are Texas, Alabama, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, and North Dakota. The odds of a U.S. state approving a bitcoin reserve before March 2025 are at 18%.
However, it is essential to note that prediction markets can also be wrong. To put it in context, Polymarket’s odds of a Trump executive order on cryptocurrencies on the first day were 56% on inauguration day, and plummeted to 0% on his first day in the workplace as he has not signed no executive order on cryptocurrencies.
As Trump’s administration progresses through its first hundred days, prediction markets and pollsters will be tested, and the effects will speak for themselves. I predict that markets will become more accurate and efficient over time as more participants seek to make their perspectives explicit and support their ideals with their portfolios.
In the era of prediction markets, investors can now benefit from accessing market intelligence data from venues like Polymarket for free. In the past, this type of market intelligence information was only available to wealthy investors willing to pay for market surveys and polls. More information can lead to better decisions. Over time, this evolution should level the playing field between large and small investors in terms of access to market data.
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