Germany was quick to announce a pause in asylum applications from Syrian nationals following the fall of dictator Bashar Assad on December 8.
Just 36 hours after Syrian rebels said they had liberated the capital, Damascus, the German government suspended decisions on more than 47,000 pending asylum programs for Syrians. Within hours, France, Britain, Italy and several countries followed suit.
The decisions heightened nervousness among the more than 1.5 million Syrians who have settled in Europe since the civil war began in 2011.
Particularly alarming were remarks by Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, who instructed his ministry to prepare a program for the “orderly repatriation and deportation to .” German politicians have made similar calls.
European governments appeared to be seizing the moment of Assad’s ouster to address growing public unease over high migration rates.
Even before the announced pause, by the end of October more than 108,000 Syrian asylum programs were ending in EU states, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).
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The swift decisions marked a stark contrast to the welcoming attitudes seen at the height of the 2015/16 European migrant crisis. Back then, Germans greeted Syrian refugees at railway stations with water bottles and food.
The announcements were even more unsettling given the ongoing chaos in Syria, where the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is struggling to establish a caretaker government.
Compounding the situation was the apparent reversal of a key reason Europe wanted to welcome Syrian nationals. Beyond addressing humanitarian needs, politicians argued at the time that Syrians would help alleviate critical labor market shortages.
Anastasia Karatzas, a political analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Center (EPC), noted that the European Union had recently stepped up its efforts to return more refugees to their countries of origin before Assad’s overthrow, despite the massive Request more workers.
“There is a pressing need across the EU to address the shortage of hard labour, but also to take on the exploitation of hard labour, i. e. abnormal migrant workers. But there is now a threat that the priority given to return [refugees] overshadows those other priorities,” Karatzas told DW.
Integrating such a gigantic number of refugees (972,000 Syrians in the case of Germany) in such a short time is truly a challenge. However, Philipp Jaschke, a hard work market researcher at the Nuremberg-based Employment Research Institute (IAB), believes Germany’s efforts “have worked much better than expected. ”
“[The refugees] left Syria suddenly. Many of them had traumatic reports while fleeing. When they arrived, they were largely unprepared for the German labor market and there were many institutional barriers,” Jaschke told DW.
These obstacles included long delays in asylum decisions, learning German, completing studies, and obtaining identified qualifications before entering the labour market, which takes years. Meanwhile, refugees’ job clients are limited to low-skilled positions.
IAB surveys suggest that back home, more than 90% of Syrians worked in occupations that require vocational training or a university degree in Germany. When they reached Germany, around a third initially worked in low-skilled jobs. Six years later, a quarter of them were still in these roles.
As of September 2024, approximately 287,000 Syrians were employed in Germany, a report by the IAB published on December 13 revealed. Their average employment rate has fallen as large numbers arrived more recently and are still in the early phase of the integration process.
The longer refugees remain in Germany, however, the more likely they are to find a job. IAB found that around 61% of Syrian refugees were employed seven years after their arrival.
Although the 37% official jobless rate for Syrians is far higher than that of Germany’s national unemployment rate of 5.9% in November, cultural and other factors have played a significant role. More Syrian women than men are not in the workforce. Many held traditional family roles back home and have a lower likelihood of prior work experience. They’re also more likely to be mothers to young children.
The EPC’s Karatzas said other problems include discrimination and “persistent difficulties in popularity and ratings,” referring to Europe as a whole.
In Germany, almost 30% of refugee women work in the social and cultural service sectors, in addition to education and childcare. One in ten people works in retail. More than a fifth of refugee men work in logistics or manufacturing. Syrians also have a significant presence in the hospitality, healthcare and structural sectors, according to the IAB.
“These sectors are experiencing a serious shortage of hard work,” Jaschke said, with high demand for personnel and a relatively low supply of hard work. “So Germany would lose if those other people left. “
As to the question of how many would now like to return, a recent IAB-led survey found that more than 90% of Syrian-born refugees who entered Germany between 2013 and 2019 stated that they wanted to stay permanently. However, that could change as a result of the latest developments in Syria.
“Almost 40% have lived here since 2015 or more. They make a living here, they have created social networks, many have brought their families, so most likely many will stay,” Jaschke told DW.
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Those who have not been incorporated into Europe or who have not been able to find works in a moderate and consistent period of time will likely be forced to return or will have to return. Many others would likely be willing to help rebuild Syria’s economy after only about 14 years of civil war. German conservative lawmaker Jens Spahn recently told n-tv that they will receive government help to repatriate and spoke of a relocation bonus of 1,000 euros ($1,055) in line with the user and use of government-chartered planes.
As arguments continue to swirl over the issue, Frank Werneke warns against a large-scale repatriation effort. The head of Verdi, a German services union, hopes ministers will “approach the situation with a cool head.”
In an interview with German news firm DPA, Werneke said it is vital that Syria’s transitional government first creates “the maximum possible democratic situations,” given the wishes of the country’s numerous ethnic and devout groups.
At the European level, Karatzas fears that anti-immigrant sentiment could simply galvanize a knee-jerk reaction from many EU states and warned them to oppose making hasty decisions.
“Policies need to evolve so that returns are done in a well-managed way, based on evidence and knowledge about [refugees’] contributions [to the labour market]. “
Edited by: Uwe Hessler